Implied probability is basically the conversion of odds into a percentage. That percentage then shows the likelihood of an outcome happening based on the size of the odds. High odds suggest a low probability of something happening, while low odds suggest a high probability of something happening.

American odds of +200 would become 3.00 in decimal format. You multiply your stake (bet amount) by that figure in order to calculate your potential return. If you were to bet $100 at 3.00, you. As the American Odds have two types, there are two methods to convert them into decimal form. For positive odds, the odds are divided by 100 and 1 is added to it. For negative odds, 100 is divided by the odds and 1 is added to it.

For example, imagine a tennis player is +200 to win an upcoming match. This would be 3.00 in decimal odds, and 2/1 in fractional odds. The implied probability for these odds is 33.33%. In this example, the odds suggest that the player has a 33.33% chance of winning the match.

In sports, the probability of something happening is usually subjective. There are several factors to take into account and there’s always a chance of the unexpected. No one can state definitively the exact probability of a player or team winning a game they’re taking part in. There’s an element of personal opinion involved.

Calculating the implied probability is useful though. It helps us decide whether or not we think a bet offers any positive value. We should always look for positive value when betting, and it exists when our estimated probability of an outcome happening is greater than the implied probability that the odds on that outcome suggest.

American Odds To Decimal

Confused? Don’t worry! It’s not as complicated as it may seem. To make this easier to understand, let’s continue with the example of the tennis player at +200 to win his match. As we’ve said, the implied probability here is 33.33%. So if we think that the player has a GREATER than 33.33% of winning, then it makes perfect sense to bet on him. If we think his chances are less than 33.33%, it’s wise not to bet on him.

American Odds To Decimal Odds

If you’d like a more complete explanation on this subject, there’s an article in our sports betting guide that explains value and implied probability in further detail.