Timeform's Epsom Derby Analyst Verdict: English King demonstrated all the qualities needed to excel at Epsom when an easy winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial and can strike under Frankie Dettori. In the Florida Derby, Orb ran pace ratings of 76, 87 and 103. Although his late kick stayed powerful in each start, the numbers also show Orb’s improved early speed in the Florida Derby.

It has been eight years since Camelot won the Derby, in the process becoming only the second horse to complete the 2000 Guineas/Derby double since Nashwan in 1989.

Both Dawn Approach (2013) and Saxon Warrior (2018) have attempted to do that double since – and failed – which serves as a timely reminder that horses with the necessary blend of speed and stamina to win both races don’t come along very often.

The latest to attempt the double in Saturday’s Epsom Derby is Kameko, who sets the clear standard on Timeform’s ratings after producing a high-class effort to win the 2,000 Guineas. Wichita and Pinatubo, who were second and third respectively in the opening Classic of the season, advertised the strength of that form when also finishing placed (in reverse order) behind Palace Pier in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.

A Timeform master rating of 128 identifies Kameko as an above-average winner of the Newmarket Classic, but the big question is whether he’ll stay the extra half a mile at Epsom on Saturday.

His strength at the finish at Newmarket suggests that 1m 4f will be within his range, but his stamina for the Derby trip can’t be assured on pedigree. His sire, Kitten’s Joy, was a Grade 1 winner over a mile and a half in the US, but several of the most talented performers on the distaff side of Kameko’s pedigree showed their best form up to a mile.

Those doubts about Kameko’s stamina mean that he isn’t the favourite for the Derby that you might expect, with that honour going to English King, the impressive winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial on just his third start.

Stamina was tested thoroughly in a race run at a strong gallop, but it was the speed demonstrated by English King that impressed as much as anything, barely needing to come off the bridle as he shot clear in the final furlong to land the spoils by two and three quarter lengths. Admittedly, the bare form of that effort is a long way below what Kameko has achieved.

However, English King hasn’t yet shown all that he has to offer, and he looks sure to take plenty of beating as he attempts to provide Camelot with a first British Classic success as a sire.

Timeform Rating Vs Beyer

Camelot’s trainer, Aidan O’Brien, could field up to seven runners in his search for an eighth success in the race. Russian Emperor is the highest-rated of them at this stage, with plenty to like about the way he ground out victory in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. His powerful late surge suggests he’ll relish stepping up to a mile and a half, and, with further improvement on the cards, he rates a big player.

Mogul and Vatican City are others to note among the Ballydoyle contenders. The latter is still unexposed after only three starts and caught the eye when a fast-finishing second behind Siskin in the Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh last time, while Mogul should do better than when fourth behind Pyledriver on his return in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. He had previously been touted as the leading Epsom contender from his stable and is well worth another chance to build on the promise he showed as a two-year-old.

Pyledriver showed improved form to win that Group 2, though he was undoubtedly seen to maximum advantage given how the race developed. He will need to take another step forward to play a hand in the finish here, a comment that also applies to the third from that contest, Mohican Heights.

Others who make more appeal at double-figure odds include Highland Chief, who showed smart form to defy top weight in the Golden Gates Handicap at Royal Ascot last time, and the one-two from the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood, Khalifa Sat and Emissary. The former showed a good attitude to land the spoils on that occasion, but Emissary is perhaps the better long-term prospect of the pair, given that he was conceding both experience (still green) and track position to the winner.

Verdict:

Kameko sets the standard on form but isn’t certain to stay this far on pedigree, so he could be worth opposing with the exciting English King. The latter’s success in the Lingfield Derby Trial could hardly have been achieved with more ease, demonstrating all the qualities needed to excel at Epsom.

He looks capable of taking another significant step forward and is fancied to provide jockey Frankie Dettori with a third win in the blue riband. Russian Emperor and Highland Chief complete the short-list.

*Prices quoted are ante-post until final decs on Thursday and are subject to change.

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Timeform Derby Ratings Odds

English King is a real Derby contender

The unusual start to the 2020 Flat season didn’t make the Lingfield Derby trial any deeper than normal. It was an all-British affair for the first time since 2012 and the pair at the head of the betting, English King and Berkshire Rocco, pulled clear of the remainder off a strong gallop.

Stamina was thoroughly tested and the strong-travelling English King (117p from 101p) registered an impressive success, his performance right up there with some of the better recent winners of the race.

The form of his win at Newcastle last season has worked out strongly, he has clearly progressed well and ENGLISH KING is a fascinating contender in what at this stage looks an open Derby at Epsom.

He is the type to go on improving for a while yet and deserves to be right towards the head of the market.

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The 2000 Guineas looks solid form

KAMEKO made another jolt of improvement to add a classic win to his Group 1 success in the Racing Post Trophy as a juvenile. That racing in Britain had resumed just five days prior to this first classic of the season obviously meant that none of the horses had had a prep run, but a strong gallop and fast conditions on the day meant that Kameko recorded the fastest ever time in the 2000 Guineas.

It is hard to argue that Kameko wasn’t a very worthy winner on the day, particularly as he suffered the worst of the interference in what was largely a clean race, and the principals came to the fore.

It was a strong field that assembled, with seven of the 15 runners all pattern winners in 2019 – including the outstanding two-year-old Pinatubo, who was just the third colt this century to start odds-on (after Frankel and Air Force Blue).

However, he failed to match the form of his Dewhurst win, never mind his scintillating performance in the National Stakes last season.

It is hard to blame the step up to a mile as Pinatubo never travelled with his usual fluency, and there is a chance that his contemporaries have caught up with him. Perhaps they’ve progressed past him physically and that could be the main explanation.

Love will be difficult to beat in the Epsom Oaks

The 1000 Guineas went back to Ireland for the fifth time in the last six years, with Aidan O’Brien gaining more classic success with Love, his only runner in the feature on Sunday.

The British challenge wasn’t as strong as it could have been though, with the Rockfel winner Daahyeh and Fillies’ Mile second Powerful Breeze both missing the race through injury. However, it was still a much-improved display from Love, yet another filly from the yard to really kick on as a three-year-old despite having had plenty of racing as a juvenile.

Love raced seven times last season, but looked much stronger on Sunday and hit the line powerfully as you would expect from a filly with such a strong middle-distance pedigree.

She is now a short-priced favourite for the Oaks and will be well suited by the step up in trip to a mile and a half, so will take all the beating at Epsom.

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